A Study to Test How Well BI 1291583 is Tolerated by People With Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis (Clairafly™)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 787 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chestchronicfibrosisctsafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsgroupvisittrialtablet
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study in Patients With Non-cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis to Test How Well Different Doses of BI 1323495 Are Tolerated and How BI 1323495 Affects Biomarkers of Inflammation NCT04656275 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• A Study of HSK31858 in Participants with Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT05601778 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test How Well BI 3720931 is Tolerated and Whether it Improves Lung Function in People With Cystic Fibrosis (Lenticlair™ 1) NCT06515002 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• 28 Day Repeat Dose in Cystic Fibrosis Patients NCT00903201 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Brensocatib in Participants With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT04594369 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.