A Study to Test How Well BI 3720931 is Tolerated and Whether it Improves Lung Function in People With Cystic Fibrosis (Lenticlair™ 1)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (45 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-02-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 827 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungsafety tolerabilityplacebostudy ispurpose of
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbiadulttrialopen
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test How Well BI 1291583 is Tolerated by People With Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis (Clairafly™) NCT05865886 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Repeated Application of Gene Therapy in CF Patients NCT01621867 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A 4-week Study to Test Different Doses of BI 1265162 in Adolescents and Adults With Cystic Fibrosis Using the Respimat® Inhaler - BALANCE - CF™1 NCT04059094 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Two-Part Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Repeat Doses of Inhaled ETD001 in People With Cystic Fibrosis NCT06478706 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study Assessing PTI-428 Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics in Subjects With Cystic Fibrosis NCT02718495 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.