National Adaptive Trial for PTSD Related Insomnia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (234 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: purpose ofdsmscreening30 daysdisorder
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmoderateindividualsmgpatients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 639 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 103724 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Effects on Sleep and Safety of RE03 in PTSD Patients With Sleep Disturbances NCT06685965 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Study That Tests AD109 in Patients Taking GLP-1 Drugs NCT06400615 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Effects of Suvorexant in Participants With Obstructive Sleep Apnea (MK-4305-036) NCT01300455 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-group, Bayesian Adaptive Randomization Design, Dose Response Study of the Efficacy of E2006 in Adults and Elderly Subjects With Chronic Insomnia NCT01995838 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Suvorexant (MK-4305) for the Treatment of Insomnia in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-4305-061) NCT02750306 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.