Avelumab as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Subjects With Urothelial Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancers (AURA Trial)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: invasivecancerstagehepatitishcv
  Phrases that lowered it: impairedaccording toinfluenzascreeningfunction
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Avelumab and Radiation in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03747419 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Avelumab as Single Agent in Metastatic or Locally Advanced Urothelial Cancer in Patients Unfit for Cisplatin. The ARIES Study NCT03891238 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study Combining Eribulin Mesylate With Avelumab in Cisplatin Ineligible Metastatic Urothelial Cell Cancer Patients NCT03502681 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• A Window of Opportunity Trial: Avelumab in Non-metastatic Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03498196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Avelumab in Combination With Fluorouracil and Mitomycin or Cisplatin and Radiation Therapy in Treating Participants With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03617913 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.