Avelumab and Radiation in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 32% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-02-24, after 2018-12-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cisplatincancerradiationcellchemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: articularmminjectionscreeningwomen -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 290 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 20 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 20 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 290 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 97 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 643 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 407 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- avelumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Avelumab as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Subjects With Urothelial Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancers (AURA Trial) NCT03674424 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- A Window of Opportunity Trial: Avelumab in Non-metastatic Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03498196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- First-line Gemcitabine/Cisplatin +/- Avelumab in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Bladder Carcinoma NCT03324282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
- A Combination of Avelumab and Taxane (AVETAX) for Urothelial Cancer NCT03575013 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Avelumab as Single Agent in Metastatic or Locally Advanced Urothelial Cancer in Patients Unfit for Cisplatin. The ARIES Study NCT03891238 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.