First Line Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer : 5FU/LV+Nal-IRI, Gemcitabine+Nab-paclitaxel or a Sequential Regimen of 2 Months 5FU/LV+Nal-IRI

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellscancersubjects withpaclitaxel
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacypatientsaccordingpatienttrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 91410 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16998 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Second Line Chemotherapy for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01543412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of PRI-724 Plus Gemcitabine in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01764477 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• 2nd-line Therapy With Nal-IRI After Gem/Nab-pac in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer - Predictive Role of 1st-line Therapy NCT03468335 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Nab-Paclitaxel, Capecitabine, and Radiation Therapy Following Induction Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02394535 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• First Line Treatment of Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma. NCT01964287 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.