Anti-RSV Study in Chinese Patients (ASCENT)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (780 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-04-04, after 2019-03-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to screeningpriormonthschronicacute
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatewith activethe efficacygastrointestinal -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of AK0529 in Adults Patients Hospitalized With RSV Infection NCT06942299 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- A Study of AK0529 in Chinese Infants Hospitalized With RSV NCT04231968 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess EDP-938 for the Treatment of Acute Upper Respiratory Tract Infection With Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Adult Subjects NCT04196101 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate Orally Administered ALS-008176 in Adults Hospitalized With a Respiratory Syncytial Virus NCT02673476 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of Presatovir in Hospitalized Adults With Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection NCT02135614 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.