Cervical Preparation With Mifepristone Prior to Osmotic Dilators
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-02-26, after 2019-04-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priorconcurrentagechronic18 years
Phrases that lowered it: safety ofto evaluateweekslong termmedication -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 270 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3329 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 270 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 80 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3329 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 412 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mifepristone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mifepristone Versus Osmotic Dilator Insertion for Cervical Preparation Prior to Surgical Abortion at 15-18 Weeks NCT01436279 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Mifepristone for Labor Induction NCT05097326 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- An RCT of a Synthetic Osmotic Cervical Dilator for Induction of Labour in Comparison to Dinoprostone Vaginal insErt NCT03001661 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of the Misoprostol Vaginal Priming Insert (MVPI) Prior to Hysteroscopy NCT00925938 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Efficacy & Safety Study Comparing Misoprostol Vaginal Insert (MVI) Versus Dinoprostone Vaginal Insert (DVI) for Reducing Time to Vaginal Delivery NCT01127581 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.