Mifepristone Versus Osmotic Dilator Insertion for Cervical Preparation Prior to Surgical Abortion at 15-18 Weeks
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-08-31, after 2011-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 47.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hoursprior tochronic24failure
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantpreparationcompareon day -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 45 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 236 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 47.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mifepristone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Misoprostol for Cervical Priming Prior to Vacuum Aspiration NCT01933360 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Effect of Preoperative Buccal Misoprostol on Blood Loss in Second-trimester Dilation and Evacuation Abortion NCT01436266 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- Mifepristone and Misoprostol Versus Misoprostol Alone for Mid-trimester Termination of Pregnancy (14-21 Weeks LMP) NCT00957346 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
- Cervical Preparation With Mifepristone Prior to Osmotic Dilators NCT03714880 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- MisOpRostol Effect on Second Trimester Abortion Blood Loss NCT06078501 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.