Melatonin Cream Against Acute Radiation Dermatitis in Patients With Early Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcancertherapytumorbreast
  Phrases that lowered it: dermatitisinvestigateareathe aimaim of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 18330 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Melatonin Supplementation for Cancer-related Fatigue in Patients Receiving Radiotherapy NCT02332928 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Curcumin for the Prevention of Radiation-induced Dermatitis in Breast Cancer Patients NCT01042938 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Barrier Film vs. Standard Skin Care in Preventing Dermatitis in Women With Breast Cancer Receiving Radiation NCT01762020 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Preventive Effect of Boron-based Gel on Radiation Dermatitis NCT04239560 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Trial Comparing Calendula Officinalis With Aqueous Cream Essex to Treat Skin Reactions From Radiotherapy of Breast Cancer NCT01688479 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.