Afatinib and Cetuximab in Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Exon 20 Insertion Positive Non-small-cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: smallcelllung cancerstagesurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: uppernormalcombinationdrugslimit of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Intermittent, High-dose Afatinib to Determine the Maximal Tolerated Dose and Assess Activity of This Dose Against Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With T790M Mutations NCT01647711 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Afatinib in Lung Cancer With EGFR Mutation From Circulating Tumor DNA NCT02629523 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• An Open Label Trial of Afatinib (Giotrif) in Treatment-naive (1st Line) or Chemotherapy Pre-treated Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Harboring EGFR Mutation(s) NCT01853826 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Maintaining ERBB Blockade in EGFR-mutated Lung Cancer NCT02488694 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.