A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Elezanumab When Added to Standard of Care in Progressive Forms of Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplesclerosisprogressivestatusthe safety
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacyscreeningevaluate theto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Elezanumab When Added to Standard of Care in Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT03737851 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of ELND002 in Patients With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT01144351 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ELND002 in Patients With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT01318421 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy Study of Andrographis Paniculata Purified Standardized Extract (ApE) in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT02280876 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01194570 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.