Nivolumab, BMS-936558 in Combination With Relatlimab, BMS-986016 in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma Naïve to Prior Immunotherapy in the Metastatic Setting

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagepriormetastaticmelanomabrain
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmacombinationdrugwomenconsent
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11379 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab Combined With Ipilimumab Followed by Nivolumab Monotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT02599402 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Study of Immunotherapy Combinations in Participants With Solid Cancers That Are Advanced or Have Spread NCT03459222 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab Versus Ipilimumab Alone in Previously Untreated Advanced Melanoma (CheckMate 067) NCT01844505 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Plus Ipilimumab Compared With Ipilimumab Alone in the Treatment of Previously Untreated, Unresectable, or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01927419 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Safety of Relatlimab With Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Melanoma Who Progressed on Anti-Programmed Cell Death Protein 1 (Anti-PD-1) Treatment NCT03978611 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.