Sintilimab or Placebo With Chemotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma ( ORIENT-15 )

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticchemotherapycarcinomasquamouscancer
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetythe efficacysafety ofdiseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 129898 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sintilimab Plus Chemotherapy Followed by dCRT in Locally Advanced ESCC NCT03985046 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Sintilimab and Anlotinib Combined With Chemotherapy in Neoadjuvant Treatment of Resectable Esophageal Cancer NCT06015035 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety & Efficacy of the Combination of LJM716 & BYL719 in Patients With Previously Treated Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC) NCT01822613 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Study To Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Sitravatinib in Combination With Tislelizumab in Participants With Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05461794 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate LBL-007 in Combination With Tislelizumab Plus Chemotherapy in Participants With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT06010303 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.