Sintilimab Plus Chemotherapy Followed by dCRT in Locally Advanced ESCC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-12-31, after 2019-10-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomasquamouscellhearttherapy
Phrases that lowered it: trialand safetyefficacy andhcvthe efficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 78 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 67 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sintilimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Sintilimab or Placebo With Chemotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma ( ORIENT-15 ) NCT03748134 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- The Value of Sintilimab Consolidation Therapy After Definitive Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Thoracic Esophageal Cancer NCT04212598 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Preoperative Sintilimab Plus Nab-paclitaxel and Cisplatin in BR-ESCC Patients NCT04548440 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Study of S-1 in Combination With Radiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer NCT01831531 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Concurrent Radiotherapy Following Induction Chemoimmunotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT07015489 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.