A Study of LY3454738 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Atopic Dermatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-07, after 2018-11-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ascendingsafety tolerabilityrandomizationtolerability andplacebo controlled
Phrases that lowered it: healthyparticipantsparticipantkginclusive -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1206 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1206 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 143 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3454738 in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05911841 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY3844583 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Atopic Dermatitis NCT05486208 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY3375880 in Adults With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03831191 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY3471851 in Participants With Eczema NCT04081350 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3872386 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Atopic Dermatitis NCT06119529 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.