A Study of LY3454738 in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-03-14, after 2023-06-21 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: smalladscoreapplytherapy
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy anddermatitissafety ofatopic -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1557 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1557 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 130 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3375880 in Adults With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03831191 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- A Study of LY3454738 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Atopic Dermatitis NCT03750643 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Clinical Effect, Safety and Tolerability of GSK1070806 in Atopic Dermatitis NCT04975438 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3471851 in Participants With Eczema NCT04081350 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Subcutaneous Lunsekimig (SAR443765) Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Moderate-to-severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT06790121 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.