Clinical Effect, Safety and Tolerability of GSK1070806 in Atopic Dermatitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseaseintravenoustreatment withstableweeks of
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalparticipantsparticipantdermatitisinvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2675 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Finding Study to Investigate the Safety and Effectiveness of GSK1070806 in Adult Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05999799 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• A Study of LY3454738 in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05911841 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Oral SHR0302 in Subjects Aged 12 Years and Older With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT04875169 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Phase 2b Study of ASLAN004 in Adults With Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT05158023 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of CMK389 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis. NCT04836858 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.