A Study on BMS-986177 for the Prevention of a Stroke in Patients Receiving Aspirin and Clopidogrel

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainischemicacuteother protocolprotocol defined
  Phrases that lowered it: factorpreventionclopidogrelaspirinpatients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 642 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 112 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 70585 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of a Protease Activated Receptor-4 Antagonist Being Tested to Reduce the Chances of Having Additional Strokes or Mini Strokes NCT02671461 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Antiplatelet Therapy in Acute Mild-Moderate Ischemic Stroke NCT02869009 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Clopidogrel in High-risk Patients With Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events NCT00979589 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study to Gather Information About Proper Dosing and Safety of the Oral FXIa Inhibitor BAY 2433334 in Patients Following a Recent Non Cardioembolic Ischemic Stroke Which Occurs When a Blood Clot Has Formed Somewhere in the Human Body (But Not in the Heart) Travelled to the Brain. NCT04304508 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Ticagrelor Plus Aspirin in Mild Non-cardioembolic Ischemic Stroke NCT04738097 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.