Continuous Erector Spinae Block Versus Continuous Paravertebral Block
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-02-01, after 2019-04-16 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painopioidchronicundergoinghours
Phrases that lowered it: patientsevaluate thethe efficacyto evaluateaim -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2278 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0.08 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 12 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 135 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 37 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2278 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 260 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ropivacaine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Bilateral Continuous Erector Spinae Blocks for Post-Sternotomy Pain Management: A Pilot Study NCT03936387 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Erector Spinae Block Versus Surgeon Infiltration in VATS Procedures NCT03859635 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Erector Spinae Plane Block in Scoliotic Adolescents NCT03968146 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- The Incidence of Post-Operative Lung Atelectasis With Erector Spinae Plane Block in Bariatric Surgery: NCT06695858 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Erector Spinae Block and Pecto-Intercostal Facial Block For Enhanced Recovery in Adult Cardiac Surgery NCT05475561 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.