MRD-guided Treatment in NPM1mut AML Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: amlsubjectcancerchemotherapyevidence of
  Phrases that lowered it: trialdrugshivpdvisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 35.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7258 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab and Decitabine for Refractory or Relapsed Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT02996474 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• PD-1 Inhibition in Advanced Myeloproliferative Neoplasms NCT03065400 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of Azacitidine in Combination With Pembrolizumab in R/R AML Patients and in Newly Diagnosed Older Patients NCT02845297 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Treating Minimal Residual Disease in Patients With Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT02767934 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Safety & Efficacy Study of Combination of Pembrolizumab and Lenalidomide, in Patients With Relapsed Non-Hodgkin and Hodgkin Lymphoma NCT02875067 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.