Phase 3 Study of BGJ398 (Oral Infigratinib) in First Line Cholangiocarcinoma With FGFR2 Gene Fusions/Translocations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomatumorcisplatinmetastaticsubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: participants withpulmonaryfirst dosefactorevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of E7090 in Participants With Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic Cholangiocarcinoma With Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor (FGFR) 2 Gene Fusion NCT04238715 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Futibatinib Versus Gemcitabine-Cisplatin Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment of Patients With Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma Harboring FGFR2 Gene Rearrangements NCT04093362 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Pemigatinib Versus Chemotherapy in Unresectable or Metastatic Cholangiocarcinoma NCT03656536 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Pemigatinib in Subjects With Advanced/Metastatic or Surgically Unresectable Cholangiocarcinoma Who Failed Previous Therapy - (FIGHT-202) NCT02924376 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Phase II, Single Arm Study of BGJ398 in Patients With Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma NCT02150967 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.