Futibatinib Versus Gemcitabine-Cisplatin Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment of Patients With Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma Harboring FGFR2 Gene Rearrangements

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: qtacutetherapyradiationchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantopen labeland safetyan open
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 84542 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9207 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pemigatinib After Curative Local Therapy in Advanced iCCA With FGFR2 Fusion/Rearrangements NCT05565794 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2 Trial of Regorafenib as A Single Agent in Advanced and Metastatic Biliary Tract Carcinoma/Cholangiocarcinoma Patients Who Have Failed First-line Chemotherapy NCT02053376 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Study of Sunitinib in Patients With Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma NCT01718327 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of BGJ398 (Oral Infigratinib) in First Line Cholangiocarcinoma With FGFR2 Gene Fusions/Translocations NCT03773302 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• A Study of E7090 in Participants With Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic Cholangiocarcinoma With Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor (FGFR) 2 Gene Fusion NCT04238715 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.