BrUOG 379 Phase Ib/II Trial ONC201 + Nivolumab in MSS mCRC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatients mustactivemetastaticmalignancy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspharmacodynamicsinvestigatorof drugtype diabetes
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11342 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab Plus FOLFOXIRI/Bevacizumab in First Line Chemotherapy of Advanced Colorectal Cancer RASm/BRAFm Patients NCT04072198 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Modified FOLFOX Plus/Minus Nivolumab and Ipilimumab vs. FLOT Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Previously Untreated Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT03647969 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Modulation Of The Tumour Microenvironment Using Either Vascular Disrupting Agents or STAT3 Inhibition in Order to Synergise With PD1 Inhibition in Microsatellite Stable, Refractory Colorectal Cancer NCT03647839 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy Study of NC410 Plus Pembrolizumab in Participants With Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT05572684 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• NIVOLUMAB Plus IPILIMUMAB and TEMOZOLOMIDE in Microsatellite Stable, MGMT Silenced Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03832621 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.