NIVOLUMAB Plus IPILIMUMAB and TEMOZOLOMIDE in Microsatellite Stable, MGMT Silenced Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-30, after 2019-03-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: of studystudy treatmentfailurestudy drugheart
Phrases that lowered it: participantarthritisinadequatescreeningrheumatoid -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 39 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 61387 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17077 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab, temozolomide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab After Radiation for Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Progressing on Chemotherapy NCT03007407 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab Before Surgery for the Treatment of Mismatch Repair Deficient Locally Advanced Solid Cancers NCT04082572 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab in Recurrent and/or Metastatic SCCHN NCT03226756 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- M7824 in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer or With Advanced Solid Tumors With Microsatellite Instability NCT03436563 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Relationship Between Tumor Mutation Burden and Predicted Neo-antigen Burden in Patients With Advanced Melanoma or Bladder Cancer Treated With Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab (CA209-260) NCT02553642 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.