Preoperative Anti-PD-1 Antibody Combined With Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Esophagus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-06-17, after 2019-01-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: squamous cellcarcinomamalignancytherapycancer
Phrases that lowered it: patientsevaluate thelungapplydrug -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 13425 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4937 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pre-Operative Pembrolizumab + Chemoradiation in Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04435197 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab Plus Chemotherapy for Resectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05302011 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Study of PD-1 Antibody Combined With Chemoradiotherapy in Oligometastatic Esophageal Cancer NCT04821765 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Concurrent Radiotherapy Following Induction Chemoimmunotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT07015489 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Combination of Toripalimab and Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer NCT04005170 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.