Combination of Toripalimab and Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersquamous cellcell carcinomatransplantationpatient
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesto evaluateevaluate thepulmonaryand safety
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 90044 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of PD-1 Antibody Combined With Chemoradiotherapy in Oligometastatic Esophageal Cancer NCT04821765 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Tiragolumab in Participants With Unresectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Whose Cancers Have Not Progressed Following Definitive Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy NCT04543617 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Toripalimab and Paclitaxel/Cisplatin on Pathological Response in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients NCT04473716 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Anti-PD-1 Antibody Combined With Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Esophagus NCT03792347 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Toripalimab with Paclitaxel and Cisplatin As Neoadjuvant Treatment for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04804696 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.