Neoadjuvant Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Novel Agents in Resectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstagecancersubjects withresectable
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantopen labeldayssingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 102 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 196 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Allocation: randomized (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 10 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Novel Agents in Subjects With NSCLC NCT03822351 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Study of Durvalumab Following Radiation Therapy in Patients With Stage 3 Unresectable NSCLC Ineligible for Chemotherapy NCT04249362 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial of Durvalumab (MEDI4736) as 1st Line Therapy in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT02879617 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Intensified Chemo-immuno-radiotherapy With Durvalumab for Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers NCT04230408 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study of Durvalumab in Combination With Platinum and Etoposide for the First Line Treatment of Patients With Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04774380 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.