Study of Durvalumab in Combination With Platinum and Etoposide for the First Line Treatment of Patients With Extensive-stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsmallstageevidence oflung cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccineparticipantdosefemale
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1688 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 186294 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Durvalumab Following Radiation Therapy in Patients With Stage 3 Unresectable NSCLC Ineligible for Chemotherapy NCT04249362 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial of Durvalumab (MEDI4736) as 1st Line Therapy in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT02879617 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Etoposide/Platinum (Cisplatin or Carboplatin) for Participants With Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-604/KEYNOTE-604) NCT03066778 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab Plus Chemotherapy in Untreated Patients With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04712903 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab Plus Chemotherapy in ES-SCLC (Oriental) NCT04449861 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.