Durvalumab Plus Chemotherapy in ES-SCLC (Oriental)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-30, after 2020-12-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagecell lunglung cancersmall cellpatients must
Phrases that lowered it: hcvopen labelhepatitisvirusfirst dose -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1641 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 130 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1641 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 154 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4985 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1466 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Cisplatin/Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03382561 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Untreated Extensive SCLC NCT02580994 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Carboplatin Plus Etoposide With or Without MPDL3280A in Untreated Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02748889 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- A Trial With Chemotherapy, Immunotherapy, and Radiotherapy for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage IV Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04951115 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Thoracic RadiothErapy With Atezolizumab in Small Cell lUng canceR Extensive Disease NCT04462276 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.