Efficacy and Safety of BBT-401-1S in Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stablerandomizationpriorleast weeksactive
  Phrases that lowered it: clinically significantabnormalevaluate theto evaluatestudy to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Orally Administered BBT-401-1S in Subjects With Ulcerative Colitis NCT04596293 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Rectally Administered BBT-401-1S in Subjects With Ulcerative Colitis NCT04478825 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Safety, Efficacy, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic of Bertilimumab in Patients With Active Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01671956 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of PBF-677 in Ulcerative Colitis Patients NCT03773952 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Study of OSE-127 vs Placebo in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04882007 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.