A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD9977 in Japanese Healthy Participants With Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Administration

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingsafety tolerabilitymultipletolerability andtransplant
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantalcoholhealthyscreening
• Sponsor's past trials: 1534 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 130 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multiple-ascending Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD9977 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03435276 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Pharmacodynamic Effect of Single Doses of AZD9977 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT02532998 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Reaction of Body for Four Different Formulations of AZD9977 (Part A) and Influence of Food and Lower Dose of a Selected Formulation (Part B) in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03804645 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD9977 After Single Ascending Doses to Healthy Males NCT02484729 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Single Oral Dose Study to Evaluate Four Different Formulations of AZD9977 and the Effect of Food in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03450759 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.