Modulating ApoE Signalling to Reduce Brain Inflammation, deLirium and postopErative Cognitive Dysfunction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainpostoperativehourssurgerynon
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theefficacy andthe efficacyto evaluateinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ramelteon in the Prevention of Post-operative Delirium NCT02324153 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• The Caffeine, Postoperative Delirium, and Change in Outcomes After Surgery (CAPACHINOS-2) Study NCT05574400 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Cytoflavin® Used in Elderly Patients for the Prevention of Cognitive Decline After Major Surgery NCT03849664 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Intranasal Insulin to Prevent Intensive Care Unit Delirium NCT07532577 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Melatonin for Post Operative Delirium Prevention in Elderly Patients NCT05640934 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.