Neuro Biomarkers of Smoking Behavior
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-09-27, after 2018-09-12 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboinsulinheartdlcognitive
Phrases that lowered it: smokersparticipantssmokingto evaluatecigarettes -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 42 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 108 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 42 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy Study of Intranasal Insulin to Treat Tobacco Abstinence Syndrome NCT01781234 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Intranasal Insulin for Weight Management During Smoking Cessation NCT02028871 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Effects of Smoking on Opioid Receptor Binding: A PET Study NCT00618631 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Investigation of Nicotine Seeking Behavior in Current Smokers NCT03670212 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Neural Substrates in Nicotine Withdrawal NCT01001520 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.