Trial of Apixaban vs Warfarin in Reducing Rate of Cognitive Decline, Silent Cerebral Infarcts and Cerebral Microbleeds in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mricerebralatrialfibrillationtreatment of
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialalcoholphysicalabuseparticipate in
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 881 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 253 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 37951 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Blinded Randomized Trial of Anticoagulation to Prevent Ischemic Stroke and Neurocognitive Impairment in AF NCT02387229 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Learn How Well the Study Treatment Asundexian Works and How Safe it is Compared to Apixaban to Prevent Stroke or Systemic Embolism in People With Irregular and Often Rapid Heartbeat (Atrial Fibrillation), and at Risk for Stroke NCT05643573 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Apixaban for Early Prevention of Recurrent Embolic Stroke and Hemorrhagic Transformation NCT02283294 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study To Evaluate The Safety Of Apixaban In Atrial Fibrillation NCT00787150 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Apixaban After Anticoagulation-associated Intracerebral Haemorrhage in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation NCT02565693 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.