Denosumab for Smoldering Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjecteffectiveanemiapatient hascells
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultipleplasmainvestigatorlesions
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 251 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33372 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 132680 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Denosumab in Multiple Myeloma Patients With Renal Insufficiency NCT02833610 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Denosumab for High Risk SMM and SLiM CRAB Positive, Early Myeloma Patients NCT03792763 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Denosumab Compared to Zoledronic Acid in the Treatment of Bone Disease in Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01345019 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• A Study of Subcutaneous Daratumumab Versus Active Monitoring in Participants With High-Risk Smoldering Multiple Myeloma NCT03301220 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study of Durvalumab in Combination With Lenalidomide With and Without Dexamethasone in Adults With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT02685826 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.