Safety, Tolerability and Potential Efficacy of AVT001 in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (60 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: type diabetesdlhepatitisto assessevidence of
  Phrases that lowered it: participantthe trialevaluate theparticipantsto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2, Multicentre, Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study in Patients With New-onset Type 1 Diabetes NCT02814838 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Inducing Remission in Type 1 Diabetes With Alefacept NCT00965458 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Efficacy/Safety of Ladarixin in Type 1 Diabetes Patients With Preserved ß-cell Function at Baseline. NCT04899271 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Oral Ladarixin in Recent Onset Type 1 Diabetes and a Low Residual β-cell Function NCT04628481 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Research Trial of Aralast in New Onset Diabetes (RETAIN) NCT01183468 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.