Study of the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of BGB-283 (Lifirafenib) and PD-0325901 (Mirdametinib) in Participants With Advanced or Refractory Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomadiseasetherapycancerdays of
  Phrases that lowered it: advancedsolidparticipantsinfluenzasigning
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Antitumor Activity of BGB-3245 in Participants With Advanced or Refractory Tumors NCT04249843 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials terminated
• Study of IK-595 in RAS- or RAF-altered Advanced Tumors NCT06270082 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Mirdametinib + BGB-3245 in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT05580770 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Study of Ulixertinib for Patients With Advanced Malignancies Harboring MEK or Atypical BRAF Alterations NCT04488003 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy in Participants With Metastatic BRAF-mutant Melanoma Treated With Encorafenib With and Without Binimetinib in Combination With Nivolumab and Low-dose Ipilimuma NCT04655157 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.