LCZ696 in Advanced LV Hypertrophy and HFpEF

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheart failureleftadvancedmyocardial
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgblood pressurediseasesscreeningdiastolic
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 157980 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Preserved Left-ventricular Ejection Fraction NCT00887588 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan, on Morbidity and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT01920711 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 in Japanese Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02468232 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Double-blind Controlled Study Comparing LCZ696 to Medical Therapy for Comorbidities in HFpEF Patients NCT03066804 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• This Study Will Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Enalapril on Morbidity and Mortality of Patients With Chronic Heart Failure NCT01035255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.