CASCARA: Castration Sensitive Carboplatin, Cabazitaxel and Abiraterone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-04-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationpriorpatient hascarboplatincns
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationcondomefficacy andvolumethe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 318685 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 54766 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase I Cabazitaxel, Mitoxantrone, and Prednisone Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01594918 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel Versus Cabazitaxel Post Abiraterone or Enzalutamide NCT03764540 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• ProSTAR: A Study Evaluating CPI-1205 in Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03480646 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Multicenter Trial of Abiraterone Acetate With or Without Cabazitaxel in Treatment of Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02218606 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Biomarker Analysis of Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Undergoing Bipolar Androgen Therapy NCT04424654 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.