A Research Study of How Overdosing of a New Once Weekly Medicine NNC0148-0287 C (Insulin 287) Influences the Blood Sugar Level in People With Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: basalor equalin subjectsstudy isequal to
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsboth inclusiveparticipantinsulinbetween 18
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 177031 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 72 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Research Study of How Different Doses of a New Medicine NNC0148-0287 C (Insulin 287) Work on the Blood Sugar in People With Type 1 Diabetes When it is Taken Once a Week NCT03723772 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin: Insulin 287 and Insulin Glargine in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Have Not Used Insulin Before NCT03951805 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Research Study in People With Type 2 Diabetes to Compare Two Types of Insulin: Insulin 287 and Insulin Glargine NCT03922750 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Two Types of Insulin, a New Weekly Insulin, Insulin Icodec and an Available Daily Insulin, Insulin Degludec, in People With Type 2 Diabetes Who Use Daily Insulin NCT04770532 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Research Study to Compare Insulin 287 Once a Week to Insulin Glargine (100 Units/mL) Once a Day in People With Type 2 Diabetes. NCT03751657 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.