Study of Azeliragon in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimercancercelladsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: inclusiveblood pressurepatientsparticipation90
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Azeliragon (TTP488) in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT02080364 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Effectiveness Study of Intranasal Insulin Glulisine on Cognitive and Memory in Mild-Mod AD Patients. NCT01436045 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Study of ASN51 in Adults With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT06677203 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Effects of MK-0249 and an Alzheimer's Disease Medication on Cognitive Function in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-0249-023) NCT00874939 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABT-126 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease on Stable Doses of Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors NCT01549834 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.