Safety and Effectiveness Study of Intranasal Insulin Glulisine on Cognitive and Memory in Mild-Mod AD Patients.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindcontrolledbrainalzheimer
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgpressuresingle dosebloodmoderate
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Intranasal Glulisine in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Probable Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT02503501 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• The Study of Nasal Insulin in the Fight Against Forgetfulness (SNIFF) NCT01767909 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Effect of Insulin Sensitizer Metformin on AD Biomarkers NCT01965756 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Multinational, Multi-center, Randomized, Double-blind, Active Comparator, Phase III Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Donepezil Transdermal Patch in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT03197740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study of AGB101 in Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT03486938 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.