Intranasal Glulisine in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment and Probable Mild Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectbrainalzheimercognitivedisease
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatormedical historyinsulinmilddetermined
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Effectiveness Study of Intranasal Insulin Glulisine on Cognitive and Memory in Mild-Mod AD Patients. NCT01436045 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Safety and Efficacy Study of NA-831 NCT03538522 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• The Study of Nasal Insulin in the Fight Against Forgetfulness (SNIFF) NCT01767909 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Study of LY2886721 in Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease or Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01561430 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.