The Study of Nasal Insulin in the Fight Against Forgetfulness (SNIFF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebobrainheadevidenceor equal
  Phrases that lowered it: insulintypeopen labeldiabetesparticipant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Effectiveness Study of Intranasal Insulin Glulisine on Cognitive and Memory in Mild-Mod AD Patients. NCT01436045 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Effect of Insulin Sensitizer Metformin on AD Biomarkers NCT01965756 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Clinical Trial of Exendin-4 in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01255163 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• A Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Safety and Efficacy Study of NA-831 NCT03538522 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.