A Trial to Assess Safety and Efficacy of ADO09 Versus Insulin Aspart in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (60 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationdiabetes mellitusacutetherapysurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: trialclinicalsubjectsgastrointestinaldaily
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Assess a Co-formulation of an Insulin Analog and Pramlintide in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03916640 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Two NN1250 Formulations Versus Insulin Glargine, All in Combination With Metformin in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00611884 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Comparison of IDegAsp (Inclusive Three Explorative Formulations) With Insulin Degludec and Insulin Aspart Separately Injected in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01868568 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Trial to Compare NNC0123-0000-0338 in a Tablet Formulation and Insulin Glargine in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Currently Treated With Oral Antidiabetic Therapy NCT02470039 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Two NN5401 Formulations Versus Biphasic Insulin Aspart 30, All in Combination With Metformin in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00613951 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.