Descartes-11 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-06-11, after 2019-08-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellrefractoryactiveadequateorgan
Phrases that lowered it: safetymultipleantigenstudy willvital -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 114971 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 20911 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 114971 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 20911 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cyclophosphamide, fludarabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Autologous CD8+ T-cells Expressing an Anti-BCMA CAR in Patients With Myeloma NCT03448978 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
- Descartes-15 for Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT06304636 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Descartes-25 in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT05113342 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of UCART Targeting CS1 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (MELANI-01) NCT04142619 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- PHE885 CAR-T Therapy in Adult Participants With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT05172596 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.