Descartes-15 for Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-11-13, after 2024-06-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 80% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcellsmultiplepatients musttherapy
Phrases that lowered it: patients whowith chroniccriteria patientspulmonarynormal -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 11 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 80% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Descartes-11 in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03994705 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
- Autologous CD8+ T-cells Expressing an Anti-BCMA CAR in Patients With Myeloma NCT03448978 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
- Descartes-25 in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT05113342 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- APRIL CAR T Cells (AUTO2) Targeting BCMA and TACI for the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma NCT03287804 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Anti-CD38 CAR-T in Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT03464916 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.