Abemaciclib and Pembrolizumab in Locally Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Gastroesophageal Adenocarcinoma: Big Ten Cancer Research Consortium BTCRC-GI18-149

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breastcancertherapyventricularprior
  Phrases that lowered it: gastricas determineddetermined bymalepatients who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7023 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab in Refractory Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT02971956 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Pembrolizumab+Carboplatin in Breast Related Cancer Antigens-related Metastatic Breast Cancer (PEMBRACA) NCT03732391 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Metastatic Anal Cancer NCT02919969 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Testing the PD-1 Inhibitor Pembrolizumab as Maintenance Therapy After Initial Chemotherapy in Metastatic Bladder Cancer NCT02500121 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and MK-3475 for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ACTS-29) NCT02844075 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.