Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Selonsertib in Participants With Moderate to Advanced Diabetic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicsubjects witharbenrollmentmay apply
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmgmoderatesafety of20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 409 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Selonsertib (GS-4997) in Participants With Diabetic Kidney Disease NCT02177786 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How Well the Treatment Combination of Finerenone and Empagliflozin Works and How Safe it is Compared to Each Treatment Alone in Adult Participants With Long-term Kidney Disease (Chronic Kidney Disease) and Type 2 Diabetes NCT05254002 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate ASP8232 as Add-On Therapy to Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitor (ACEi) or Angiotensin Receptor Blocker (ARB) in Reducing Albuminuria in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease NCT02358096 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• EMPA-KIDNEY (The Study of Heart and Kidney Protection With Empagliflozin) NCT03594110 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Metformin Versus Empagliflozin on Chronic Kidney Disease Progression NCT05373680 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.